Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.507979 1.710873 1.927247 2.174759 2.449629 2.745084 3.086259
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.280932 1.566266 1.890260 2.283794 2.747171 3.273685 3.915363
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.077141 1.414564 1.821085 2.343157 2.991657 3.766234 4.756462
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.954482 1.342067 1.835969 2.504100 3.375816 4.465149 5.918568
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.787414 1.188278 1.729354 2.500757 3.557650 4.938330 6.858464
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.664892 1.075616 1.661933 2.541004 3.802394 5.519894 8.001579
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.554739 0.962625 1.578389 2.548527 4.004491 6.067231 9.157909
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.487637 0.903988 1.566194 2.658176 4.365157 6.871269 10.749318
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.424971 0.841639 1.539494 2.742704 4.699021 7.670641 12.411531
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.364774 0.772423 1.491472 2.787121 4.976342 8.413098 14.058950
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.315455 0.713520 1.452055 2.840551 5.274148 9.214997 15.868577
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.259576 0.630241 1.355900 2.782386 5.379380 9.721123 17.258888
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.208505 0.547232 1.250215 2.699727 5.446909 10.195801 18.682812
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.176612 0.498555 1.203746 2.722554 5.707299 11.023013 20.769861
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.146456 0.446131 1.140163 2.702804 5.887903 11.731833 22.723039
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.130033 0.423759 1.138053 2.809324 6.324045 12.937786 25.646253
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.105561 0.372761 1.060929 2.744524 6.414630 13.522372 27.515120
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.088478 0.337263 1.013530 2.737952 6.623080 14.346923 29.889393
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.073123 0.301753 0.958562 2.705031 6.771923 15.070175 32.133431
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.064702 0.285867 0.951788 2.785899 7.175804 16.327561 35.482697
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.056625 0.268352 0.936999 2.844885 7.537995 17.531874 38.818018
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.048578 0.247874 0.909311 2.866611 7.817624 18.590246 41.942735
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.042046 0.230706 0.887760 2.901260 8.131619 19.746161 45.344302